The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has generated new projections of world roundwood and forest product demand using the Forest Resource Outlook Model (FOROM). The projections are made for four scenarios of global climatic warming and economic growth – (1) lower warming, moderate growth; (2) high warming, low growth; (3) high warming, moderate growth; and (4) high warming, high growth – based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s four “shared socioeconomic pathways” scenarios, which assume differing climate policies.

According to the projections, world roundwood production will increase by 4–8 percent between 2022 and 2030, depending on the scenario; thus, growth is expected to be moderate in the near future. Production could increase by 6–32 percent between 2022 and 2050 (with uncertainty increasing markedly over the longer period). In terms of roundwood volume, the projected increase to 2050 ranges between 240 million m3 and 1 200 million m3 , depending on the scenario.

It should be noted that the projections in the figure draw on data describing existing markets. Thus, they do not incorporate new products or future demand for products that may be in the early stages of development. Moreover, the main drivers used in the USDA estimates based on FOROM are economic growth and population growth; the model does not explicitly include (for example) the substitution of forest products and fossil-based products as a driver. Other model limitations include lags in incorporating new data and the aggregation of some product categories (e.g. engineered wood products, biofuels and chemicals).

According to a recent analysis, the European Union accounts for only 3.9 percent of the world’s total forest area but for 43 percent of global forest product exports by value (at USD 127 billion in 2022). In contrast, Africa has almost 16 percent of the world forest area but produces less than 2 percent of the value of world forest product exports. This is because Africa uses around 90 percent of the wood harvested as fuel for heating and cooking, and most of its wood exports are unprocessed (i.e. roundwood). Thus, not only does Africa retain less than 10 percent of the value of its timber, its industry creates fewer than 10 percent of the jobs it could generate if a greater share of finished and semi-finished products were produced and exported. Some countries in Africa are moving to add value to their wood exports. For example, Gabon has banned log exports since 2010 with the aim of encouraging greater in-country wood processing; subsequently, sawnwood production increased almost fourfold between 2009 and 2022 (from 2.8 million m3 to 10.3 million m3) and roundwood exports fell to almost zero (from 1.7 million m3 in 2009 to 0.01 million m3 in 2022). The Government of Gabon has put in place a range of other policy measures to develop the country’s forest sector.

FAO has made additional estimates to include potential impacts of three emerging forest products considered the most promising wood products for the large-scale substitution of non-renewable materials: (1) mass timber/ cross-laminated timber (CLT) for construction;o (2) artificial cellulosic fibres from dissolving woodpulp, mainly used in the textiles industry; and (3) woodfuel for bioenergy.  Demand for these products is estimated to increase roundwood consumption by up to 272 million m³ per year by 2050 compared with 2020, amounting to a total increase (baseline + new products) in global roundwood consumption (production) of approximately 49 percent over the period. Note that this projection focuses on demand for wood products. Multiple pathways that combine increased harvesting and processing efficiency, recycling, and planting of forests and trees, including in agroforestry systems and building on restoration efforts, can lead to sustainable  wood supply in volumes to meet the increase in demand, supporting the bioeconomy. In line with traditional forest-sector outlook studies, the discussion above focuses on volume-based projections for forest products and roundwood. For national economies and forest-sector incomes, however, the value of these products may be more relevant than their volumes.