Global trade in wooden furniture declined by around 3% last year, marking a setback for a sector that had only recently begun to stabilise after the extreme volatility of the pandemic years. While the contraction represents a clear slowdown, CSIL notes that there is some consolation in the fact that the downturn was not deeper.

According to CSIL’s analysis published in World Furniture Online, the tariff shock anticipated for 2025 proved smaller than initially feared. Early in the year, households and businesses front-loaded consumption and investment in expectation of higher tariffs, providing a temporary boost to global economic activity. At the same time, trade flows began to reroute towards third countries during the course of 2025, partly offsetting the impact of rising trade barriers.

Despite this relative resilience, CSIL underlines that prospects for 2026 remain uncertain in the absence of clear and durable trade agreements between major trading partners. To better understand how the sector is adapting to these conditions, CSIL conducted a global survey of furniture industry associations in 2025.

The survey shows that industry bodies largely see digitalisation as the most important opportunity going forward. Nearly three-quarters of respondents agreed that greater use of digital tools for marketing, sales and trade facilitation will be critical for future competitiveness. A significant share of associations also pointed to the development of niche or high-value furniture products as a key strategy to meet international demand and differentiate from low-cost competition.

At the same time, associations identified declining export volumes and weakening price competitiveness as the main challenges faced by the sector in 2025. Regional differences were evident, however. Reduced exports to South America and Africa were seen as less problematic than in other regions, although rising export costs were still flagged as a concern.

Tariffs introduced during 2025 were reported to have primarily affected trade with the United States, but the broader uncertainty surrounding trade policy was felt across nearly all regions. In response, many companies have begun to reassess their market strategies. Around two-thirds of respondents indicated that member companies are actively exploring new or emerging markets, with particular interest in the Middle East, Africa, South America and India.

Looking ahead to 2026, respondents expect trade tensions to persist. Tariffs in the United States are anticipated to continue rising, while additional non-tariff barriers are expected to be introduced in both North America and Europe. Non-tariff measures, such as regulatory and administrative requirements, are viewed as especially problematic. Reflecting this, more than half of respondents identified rising compliance costs as an extremely relevant challenge for the furniture sector.

Despite these headwinds, the survey also highlights factors that could support export performance in 2026. New and ongoing trade agreements, including the EU-Mercosur deal and Vietnam’s free trade agreements, are seen as potentially opening new markets and improving trading conditions. In addition, growing global demand for sustainable and certified products is viewed as a positive long-term trend, encouraging innovation and the development of more environmentally friendly furniture offerings.

Overall, CSIL’s findings suggest that while the global furniture trade faces continued uncertainty, strategic adaptation, digitalisation and sustainability could help the sector navigate an increasingly complex international trading environment.