Poplar prices at an all-time high

In the poplar processing sector, industry professionals are not very confident at the end of the first half of 2025. “Indeed, the market is becoming more complicated with demand having weakened this spring,” says Hervé Drouin, who runs Drouin SAS, a family business in Sarthe that has been peeling poplar since 1949. Like his peers in the sector, he has observed a deterioration in the business climate for at least a year, with a worsening situation in recent months.

The reality is that the economic environment does not really encourage optimism. The first signs of weakening activity are already appearing in the United States, where the annual growth rate (2.8% in 2024) could drop to 1.5% in 2025. Unknown factors (unpredictable effects of tariff shocks, macroeconomic developments, etc.) could further worsen the situation in the USA. Elsewhere in the world, many imports are waiting at ports to be loaded, and the decline in global trade primarily affects China, where domestic demand and consumer confidence remain depressed due to the ongoing real estate crisis.

If exports to the USA continue to fall, China will likely seek to increase its presence in other markets — the EU market is in its sights. European exporters, who are already seeing the US market doors closing, will largely turn to the EU market. In that case, the eurozone will become a highly contested commercial space with increased competition, in a context where economic activity is not very strong.

“Our products — directly and especially indirectly through our customers in various forms — are also exported to the USA. If this market closes, Europe risks being flooded,” worries Hervé Drouin. In this marked climate of uncertainty (US trade policy unlikely to change, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, possible flare-ups in the Middle East, etc.), there is widespread hesitation. “Private investments are on hold, and in the public sector, governments seeking to reduce debt are slowing spending and tending to raise taxes.”

Hervé Drouin describes a complex situation where, in his market segment, European poplar competes on a very competitive field: panels made from African okoumé, Brazilian pine elliottii, northern European softwoods and birch... “Not only do Chinese plywood manufacturers benefit from state dumping, while Indonesians and Malaysians are very active, but Russian panels are also managing to bypass the EU embargo.”

All this inevitably has consequences for poplar. Its processed products are numerous and find uses in sectors highly sensitive to economic fluctuations: industrial and food packaging, wholesale and DIY stores, construction, automotive industries, bodywork, shipbuilding, maritime transport, logistics... From simple thermo-cladding boards to highly engineered technical panels, poplar’s uses are varied.

The paradox of log prices

However, and this is a paradox, the sluggishness of finished product markets does not seem to affect raw material purchase prices. Standing log prices remain high. After stagnating at a low level for a long time (averaging €30/m³ standing until 2015), the value of poplar logs has increased significantly since 2018 (see Table 1). “Except in 2022, when post-COVID prices soared, I estimate that in southwest France the standing value of poplars has doubled in 10 years, with a slight current increase following inflation,” says poplar grower Yannick Bournaud. Poplars in the Garonne valley now sell on average between €60 and €70/m³ standing (see Table 2).

Other French production basins show similar trends: East, Nord-Picardie, Saône and Rhône valleys... The same goes for Poitou-Charentes and Pays de Loire. Alban Klein, director of Boisloco, describes a currently very demanding market with prices increasing about 15% year-on-year. “Wood that was standing and sold for an average of €45-55/m³ two years ago is now trading around €50-65/m³.” Poor weather conditions and thus insufficient availability of wood close to loading sites largely explain the current buying pressure.

Hervé Drouin regrets this kind of disconnect where raw material prices are detached from the finished products market. “Despite the current downturn in our markets, the poplar supply in France — currently 1.4 million m³/year — barely meets the demand of French manufacturers but also of Spanish buyers in the southwest and Italian buyers in the Rhône corridor.” This paradoxical pressure on log purchases could continue for some time: according to IFN statistics, poplar harvests will decrease further to 1 million m³ within the next 10 years.

Table 1: High prices for poplar standing logs

After a price slowdown observed in 2023, poplar standing log prices rose steadily throughout 2024. In sales for the first half of 2025, demand remains very satisfactory at stable prices.

Table 2: Poplar prices by quality

Source: Robert Wood