In the wood sector, there are occasional moments when market behaviour appears to defy economic logic. However, these episodes are rarely comparable in scale to what economists describe as a price bubble. Whether economic, financial or speculative, bubbles emerge when prices become rapidly and irrationally disconnected from the underlying value needed to generate objectively measurable profit.

On a smaller scale, this dynamic now appears to be affecting French cooperage-grade oak (merrain oak). For nearly three years, until the end of 2024, intense buying activity fuelled a sharp surge in prices, pushing values to unprecedented levels across the French oak supply chain. Since early 2025, however, the market has reversed abruptly, with prices and demand falling sharply and sending shockwaves through the entire sector.

A speculative surge followed by a sudden correction

The earlier boom was pronounced. Jean-Luc Sylvain, former president of the French Cooperage Federation, confirmed that cooperage-grade oaks purchased standing in state forests for €800–1,000 per cubic metre in early 2023 were selling for twice that level one year later. The surge was partly speculative and driven by fears of raw-material shortages at a time when demand for barrels was considered to be expanding rapidly.

Warnings emerged as early as 2024. Vincent Lefort, president of the French Stave Producers’ Association (Syndicat des Mérandiers de France), cautioned that scarcity-driven bidding was creating dangerous tensions. He criticised the ONF’s oak marketing policy, particularly the “oak agreement” that reserved 50% of public-forest volumes for sawmills under contract, arguing that it had severely disrupted market supply.

Prices collapse as demand dries up

The price rally proved unsustainable. A first decline of around 20% in forest purchase prices was recorded in the first quarter of 2025. The situation deteriorated further in autumn as demand collapsed (see Table 1).

A clear turning point came at the ONF’s flagship Cérilly auction on 30 September 2025, featuring prestigious cooperage oak from the Tronçais forest (Allier). Half of the lots remained unsold, triggering a sharp price correction. According to industry sources, cooperage logs that were selling for around €1,200/m³ one year earlier now struggle to fetch €600/m³, provided a buyer can be found.

Barrel market downturn at the root of the crisis

The reversal is primarily linked to a downturn in the barrel market. According to the French Cooperage Federation, sales volumes in the 2024/2025 financial year fell by an average of 15%, with a sharper decline of 19.7% in France, which together with the United States accounts for 64% of global barrel sales.

Demand has weakened almost worldwide due to a combination of factors: vine diseases, adverse weather, lower wine consumption and U.S. tariffs. The surge in oak procurement costs mechanically pushed barrel prices higher, prompting winegrowers to delay or reduce purchases. As a result, unsold barrel inventories have grown, cooperages are operating below capacity and stocks are accumulating.

This creates a particularly difficult situation for stave producers and cooperages that purchased raw material at peak prices but will not process it into staves for at least two years. With expectations for the 2026 season deteriorating, confidence across the sector remains low.

Spillover effects across the French oak market

Cooperage oak accounts for nearly 40% of the total value of France’s oak harvest, despite representing only 16% of volumes. According to the Stave Producers’ Association, around 350,000 cubic metres of cooperage logs are harvested annually in French forests—at least twice that share in value. As a result, the crisis in cooperage is dragging down oak prices across all segments, especially as other markets show limited momentum.

At recent year-end sales, the downward trend continued. Philippe Pattier, director of the Groupement Champenois, which operates in private forests in Aube and neighbouring departments, said that during a grouped sale on 5 December 2025, average oak prices fell 6% compared with June, while 27% of lots remained unsold.

Since peak levels reached in mid-2022, prices at Groupement Champenois auctions have fallen by an average of 44%, with declines approaching 50% for smaller oak logs (1.5–2 m³) (see Table 2).

Market weakness now affects all assortments. Gérald Brochet, head of a French sawmill, said the decline is generalised: “No segment is doing better than another. Some industrial products were sold from inventory reluctantly. We will need to wait until the end of winter to see whether the market has bottomed out.”

Asia remains a partial outlet

David Roy, director of DSH Wood France, said Asia remains the only relatively supportive outlet. “Exports started earlier this year—at the end of September—and at a very sustained pace,” he said, adding that seasonality may need to be managed differently.

Despite weaker Chinese demand overall, Roy said market consolidation in favour of reliable suppliers has benefited some exporters in both volume and pricing. Oak volumes initially intended for the French market but left unsold due to customer insolvencies are now being redirected to China.

Accelerating decline in French oak prices

ONF auctions in Burgundy – EU-labelled oak, affouage high forest cuts
Prices in €/m³

Source: Robert Wood

Table 2 – Decline in oak prices in private forests in Champagne

Standing timber, sold as a block – €/m³

Source: Robert Wood, based on Groupement Champenois statistics