Brexit “awful for the UK plywood market”

Source:
ITTO/Fordaq
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“Brexit has been awful for the market, with uncertainty affecting demand, projects delayed and households deferring spending,” said a UK plywood importer. “Merchants are saying it’s quieter, which in turn affects us as importers.”

UK plywood companies say they are also keeping a ‘watching brief’ on the potential impact of Brexit on EUTR and EU FLEGT regulation administration. Both are being assimilated into UK law, to be known respectively as the UKTR and UK FLEGT when the country leaves the EU.

The Brexit date is now scheduled for 31st January and, following the UK parliamentary election on 12th December which delivered a large majority for the ruling conservative party, seems to certain to take place as planned under the revised withdrawal agreement negotiated between Boris Johnson’s government and the European Union in 2019.

Under the terms of this withdrawal agreement, the UK will enter a transition period after 31st January to provide time for the UK and the EU to negotiate on what their future relationship will look like. During the transition period the UK won’t be a member of the EU but will still have to abide by its rules.

The end date for the transition period is currently set for 31st December 2020 but could be extended for one or two years. During the election campaign, the conservative party stated that it would not seek an extension to the transition period.

However, the EU has suggested that the timeline for negotiations to be completed before the end of 2020 is unrealistic. The size of the government’s majority after the election also gives the UK prime minister leeway within his own party to reset the timetable to be more manageable. The terms of any extension would have to be agreed with the EU before 1st July 2020.

While Brexit now seems a certainty, the risk of a “no deal” Brexit has receded. The risk has not completely disappeared since there is no guarantee that negotiations towards a future arrangement with the EU will be successful. A “no deal” departure could still theoretically occur at the end of 2020, or 2022 at the very latest. After that, if no future relationship deal was agreed, then the UK’s trading relationship with the EU would be on WTO terms.

In the event of “no deal”, all plywood imported into the UK, from EU countries as well as other sources, would have to undergo UKTR due diligence. However, the agreement eventually reached with the EU might include mutual recognition arrangements so that imports from EU countries might not require due diligence.

From January to August, latest analysis of Eurostat Comext data shows UK imports from the rest of the EU at 90,400 tonnes, an increase of 8.3% (which some attribute to an element of stockpiling prior to the original Brexit deadline at the end of March).

This compared with 454,400 tonnes from outside the EU, down 6.7% on the same period in 2018.

Plywood imports across the EU as a whole for the eight months were down 3% to 3.165 million tonnes, with intraEU trade 4% lower at 1.3 million tonnes and extra-EU imports down 2%.

Among the biggest falls were seen in Germany, with total plywood imports down 12% to 602,000 tonnes, Italy, down 14% to 184,700 tonnes, Latvia down 15% to 57,000 tonnes and Poland down 5% to 154,300 tonnes.

Strongest increases in plywood imports in the January to August period included those of the Netherlands, up 6% to 325,000 tonnes, Belgium up 9% at 245,300 tonnes, France up 4% at 237,400 tonnes, Denmark up 2% to 99,600 tonnes, Sweden up 20% at 92,700 tonnes (with extra EU imports up 61% at 43,000 tonnes) and Spain up 11% at 79,100 tonnes.

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