China: Think tank forecasts higher growth in second quartero 2013

Source:
ITTO's Tropical Timber Market Report
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The Centre for China in the World Economy (CCWE), Tsinghua University expects China's economy to grow faster in the second half of 2013 as exports and investment rise. see: www.ccwe.org.cn/ccwenew/en/
The CCWE forecasts that GDP will grow by 8 percent in the first half and by 8.4 percent for the year. The CCWE report also forecasts that China's fixed asset investment will begin to recover in the second quarter of this year. The report notes that, despite attempts to cool the housing market, demand remains strong and investment to meet demand will spur economic growth.

Interest rates raised in tandem with surge in consumer prices
China’s National Bureau of Statistics said the consumer-price index rose 4.9% in February compared to February 2012. The February rise was slightly above expectations say analysts. Interest rates have been raised three times since October 2012 and the government and Bank of China have introduced other measures to try and cool the economy but inflation remains stubbornly high and consumers have to contend with soaring prices.

Talking tough to deflate housing bubble
At the beginning of March, new measures have been introduced to minimize the risk of the housing bubble in China becoming unmanageable. The State Council released a five-point guideline including a 20% capital gains tax on sales of pre-owned homes however, the Council did not clearly indicate when the new tax would be enforced. This uncertainty has caused a sharp climb in sales of homes with statistics on sales in Beijing alone showing almost a three-fold from the same period a year ago.

However, some analysts question whether the panic selling is necessary as it seems that the attempts at easing the rise in house prices are centered on tough talk rather than on enforcement of the 20% tax which, reportedly, became law since the early 1990s but had never been strictly applied.

China test trans-Arctic shipping route
Mr.Yang Huigen, the director of China’s Polar Research Institute recently announced that the Chinese vessel, Xuelong (Snow Dragon), had successfully explored an arctic route for commercial cargo vessels to N. America and Europe. For Chinese shipping companies, this could be the first commercial shipping route across the Arctic. If commercially feasible the Arctic route will result in major savings in fuel costs as the distance is much shorter than existing routes via the Pacific and the Indian Oceans.

Some overseas shipping companies have been using the trans- Arctic shipping route. Yang Huigen predicts that by 2020, 5-15 percent of China’s container vessels could be using the Arctic route.

Efforts on wood utilization efficiency and substitution
The China Timber and Wood Product Circulation Association has reiterated that, as China is so desperately short of timber raw materials, the country must further develop forest plantations to meet domestic demand. At the same time, says the Association, more efforts are needed to improve wood processing efficiency and to promote substitution. As far back as in 1951 the Chinese government announced measures to improve wood utilisation. These included the establishment of a special authority, the Timber Saving and Development Center, to spearhead these efforts.

To further promote efficiency of wood the State Council issued a decree on Enhancing Timber Saving and Substitution use in November 2005 in which several key projects were identified, including those on mechanization and digital control of wood processing, timber protection, industrialisation of timber recycling and the environmentally friendly substitution project. In 2009, more government resources were directed to improve utilization, minimize waste and substitution. The aim of these efforts was to both save and substitute some 40-50 mil. cubic metres of timber annually.

Statistics from the Timber Saving and Development Center appear to show that the substitution of wood from 1980 to 2012 amounted to over 870 mil. cubic metres, the equivalent of 1.45 bil. cubic metres of forest growing stock. The Association asserts that through these efforts China has made a significant contribution to global forest resource protection.

China - Australia cooperation to eliminate illegal timber from trade
In December 2012 The Nature Conservancy, China (TNC) received a grant of over RMB40 million from the Australian Government to fund its Responsible Asia Forestry and Trade Project. The project aims to improve timber market management in Asia and the Pacific and specifically assist Chinese timber enterprises in responding to increasing challenges in the international timber trade. In November 2012, the Australian Government enacted a law Prohibiting Illegal Logging including prohibiting illegal wood product imports into Australia.

The Australian market is important for many Chinese enterprises which must now meet the requirements of the Australian law. Over the past five years, TNC China has been helping government agencies and the private sector to prepare for the EU Timber Regulation and to respond to the US Lacey Act. Currently, TNC is assisting with the development of China’s Legal Timber Certification System.

Fujian attracts major investors from Taiwan P.o.C
It has been reported that in 2012 the Fujian provincial government approved investment by 16 Taiwanese timber and forestry enterprises valued at around US$68 million. The Fujian provincial government has actively promoted investment from Taiwanese companies and has developed policies to support this investment. The provincial government has accelerated the development of the Taiwanese farmers' business zone and tried to create an attractive investment climate for Taiwanese companies.


Guangzhou Yuzhu International Timber Market

Logs
Price(yuan/cu.m)
Lauan
Dia. 60 cm+
2000-2200
Kapur
Dia. 80 cm+ 3100-3200
Merbau
Dia. 100 cm+ 5500-5600

Dia. 30-60 cm
10000-13000
Teak


Wenge
not specified
4500-5500

Sawnwood
Maple
Grade A
7500-9000
Walnut USA
FAS 2 inches
14000-16000
Cherry USA
FAS 2 inches
10000-12800
Sapelli
Grade A
6600-7000
Okoume
Grade A
4200-4500
Plantation Teak
Grade A
9600


Shanghai Furen Forest Products Wholesale Market

Logs
Price(yuan/tonne)
Red Sandalwood India
All grades
1 million-2 million
Myanmar and Nepal
All grades
7000-8800
Granadillo (Mexico)
All grades
7500-8000

Sawnwood
Price(yuan/m3
Okoume (Afrcia)
grade A
3700-4000
Sapelli (Afrcia)
grade A
6300-6500
Beech (Europe)
grade A
4400-4800
Red Oak (USA)
2 inch FAS
7300-7500
Cherry (USA)
2 inch
9800-10000
Maple (USA)
2 inch
8000-8300
Sapelli (Africa)
2 inch FAS
6300-6500
Merbau (Indonesia)
All grade
8500-13500


Hangzhou Timber Trading Market

Logs Price(yuan/m3)
Ash
4m 30cm
3200-4500
Larch
4m 8-10cm
1800-2900
Linden
4m 26cm
2200-3100

Sawnwood
Beech(Europe)
All grades
3200-4900
Black walnut (USA)
All grades
7000-13000
Teak(Myanmar)
All grades
9000-18000
Red oak (USA)
All grades
4200-7200
Alder(Myanmar)
All grades
4500-5300
Merbau
All grades
7200-14500

Plywood
Price(yuan/sheet)
Red beech
4'x8'x3mm
50-72
Black walnut
4'x8'x3mm
50-95
Teak
4'x8'x3mm
70-138


Shandong De Zhou Timber Market

Logs
Length
Dia.
Price(yuan/cu.m)
Larch
4m
18-22 cm
1200


24-28 cm
1250


30 cm
1450

6m
18-22 cm
1230


24-28 cm
1250


30 cm
1500
White Pine
4m
24-28 cm
1350


30 cm
1450

6m
24-28 cm
1350


30 cm
1450
Korean Pine
4m

1700

6m

1750
Mongolian
Scots Pine
4m
30cm
1360


36cm
1500

6m
30cm
1420


36cm
1600


Wenzhou Timber Trading Market

Logs
Price(yuan/m3)
Ash
2m 20-30cm
1300
Chinese fir
4m 16-18cm
1500
Wenge (Africa)
all grades
4500-5100
Teak (Africa)
all grades
2100-2500
Merbau
all grades
3500-5000
Sapelli (Africa)
all grades
3200-3700

Plywood
Price yuan/sheet
Red beech
4'x8'x3mm
40-80
Black walnut
4'x8'x3mm
40-85
Teak
4'x8'x3mm
45-110


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